Reducing uncertainty in estimates of frequency distribution parameters using composite likelihood approach and copula?based bivariate distributions

摘要

Conventional multivariate hydrological frequency analysis utilizes only the concurrent parts of data sets, leaving a lot of nonconcurrent data unutilized. Simultaneous inclusion of such nonconcurrent data can significantly reduce uncertainty in hydrologic design estimates. The methodology proposed in this paper allows varied length multivariate data to be combined and analyzed in an integrated framework through a ?Composite Likelihood Approach.? The method employs copula?based multivariate distributions in order to provide necessary flexibility of admitting arbitrary marginals. The paper presents the theoretical basis of the approach and highlights its advantages through two applications. A significant reduction in uncertainty in design flood quantiles of a relatively shorter flood series is achieved by utilizing an associated downstream flood data. The advantage of the methodology is further demonstrated by establishing significant information gain for six different combinations of Gaussian and non?Gaussian marginals. The proposed approach marks a paradigm shift in hydrologic design procedures, particularly for partially gauged basins, wherein a higher precision in hydrologic designs is achieved by leveraging associated information that has hitherto remained unutilized. It is opined that the approach will enable offsetting the impact of dwindling hydrological observation networks around the world by enhancing information that is derivable from existing networks.